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What if...?


What if...?  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. It's early Jan 2022, you're out on your summer cruise enjoying perfect weather and the govt announces another L3/4 lockdown and orders everyone to "go home". What do you do?

    • Stay out on the water as long as possible
      18
    • Rush back in, re-provision and head back out again as long as possible
      5
    • Come straight back in and go home
      7


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10 hours ago, MartinRF said:

I guess this poll is not for me. At N59 we don't usually go sailing in January :-)

/Martin

Anyone who sails at N59 deserves an honorary vote! Down this side of the world at S59 we have got literally no land!

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I think it is clear there is growing lockdown fatigue. More to the point, up coming issues are Christmas and the summer holidays. Any attempt to cancel Christmas is going to be met with markedly sharper reduction in lockdown compliance.

There are a wide number of factors contributing to this:

1) boating, on your own boat in your own bubble, is intrinsically safe. The supposed issues come about if you get into trouble and then may require search and rescue. Then, the issue is that SAR staff have to breach their bubble, most of whom are essential workers anyway... It is only then an issue if someone actually has covid...

2) there is a growing number of fully vaccinated people. These people are going to think they can 'get away with it' or alternatively feel aggrieved they still have to comply with strict lockdown rules.

Surfing is allowed in Sydney. Not the best example due to their near out of control spread. But a colleague in Sydney was telling me basically everyone has taken up surfing, cause there isn't anything else to do. The same thing is happening over here with the fishing allowed from land. I have never seen so many people fishing off the beach. I've not seen anyone actually catch a fish yet, but recreation and being in nature is very important for mental wellbeing.

I think the govt is going to have to ease lockdown requirements, just so they can maintain a degree of compliance. The question is can we eliminate this outbreak before we ease requirements? I am doubtful. Business will fold if we have to do another week at L4, not to mention the social implications. But we are still getting random - undetected cases walking into Middlemore. And every day we are getting double digit cases, more to the point though, we are still getting numbers infectious in the community - 7 of Friday's numbers were infectious in the community.

On top of that, we still don't know how this outbreak got into the community. There is nothing stopping a second outbreak kicking off, just because we have one outbreak doesn't mean we can't have another one concurrently. We dodged a bullet with that ship in Tauranga. 2 or is it 3 MIQ staff have tested positive in the last 2 weeks. They are a little too quick to say they didn't catch it in MIQ...

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25 minutes ago, Fogg said:

I know it happened last year but this year the whole dynamic is different which is why I’m curious to gauge the new mood.

Be lucky to be boating by then,article in Yesterdays Herald,likely to be level 3 for summer.

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1 minute ago, harrytom said:

Be lucky to be boating by then,article in Yesterdays Herald,likely to be level 3 for summer.

It might need a separate question / poll but based on the responses so far, I’m assuming that if we were still at L3 going into Christmas (I think L4 is unrealistic) then a lot of people would defy the “stay at home” order and pack up & go sailing. I will / would.

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11 minutes ago, Island Time said:

I think many will/would change their minds after the first few arrests...

You may be right, but that would be a dramatic shift in Govt narrative. Widespread arrests would be a shift to a totalitarian regime. The current narrative is this happy compliant team of 5 million, working together for the greater good, with a couple of ratbags sneaking out of Auck and getting dobbed in.

There would be a lot of pissed off people if we can't take a summer holiday. For example, I've always thought people being beaten up (figuratively) for going to and staying at privately owned holiday homes is harsh - provided they stay in their bubbles etc. Clearly, this is different to people escaping Auckland to enjoy a lower alert level. But if someone legitimately has two homes, who are we to tell them which one to stay in?

On the question of L3 till Christmas, I think that is a real possibility. What I am more interested in though is likely tweaks / adaption to the alert levels. The best example is mandatory mask wearing in L2, and the reduced gathering sizes, 50 instead of 100. They could easily give us something they call L2, which is actually L3 in disguise. Providing it includes surfing and sailing, I wont care :-)

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Now that the initial panic of last year is [ should be ] over, it's time for the powers that be to THINK about the logic of lockdowns. The purpose of a lockdown is to stop people meeting other people and transmitting the virus. Let's have lockdowns - they are necessary, but let's be sensible. It's time for activities which are intrinsically safe to be allowed. eg the local butcher should be able to open with a barrier at the door, people request their meat, and the [masked] transaction takes place without contact. If it is OK for supermarkets, it should be OK for this sort of thing. The small businesses are carrying an unnecessary can here.

Golf and surfing are allowed in L3 - quite right.[ although there are plenty of times we get called out to rescue surfers and paddleboards]  Sailing and boating also are isolating activities. If you really want to avoid use of Coastguard etc, then mandate that boats have to go out in pairs, to assist each other if required. We  have the brains, let's use them, and try to avoid the 'one size fits all' mass rules of lockdowns.

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1 hour ago, Fish said:

You may be right, but that would be a dramatic shift in Govt narrative. Widespread arrests would be a shift to a totalitarian regime. The current narrative is this happy compliant team of 5 million, working together for the greater good, with a couple of ratbags sneaking out of Auck and getting dobbed in.

There would be a lot of pissed off people if we can't take a summer holiday. For example, I've always thought people being beaten up (figuratively) for going to and staying at privately owned holiday homes is harsh - provided they stay in their bubbles etc. Clearly, this is different to people escaping Auckland to enjoy a lower alert level. But if someone legitimately has two homes, who are we to tell them which one to stay in?

On the question of L3 till Christmas, I think that is a real possibility. What I am more interested in though is likely tweaks / adaption to the alert levels. The best example is mandatory mask wearing in L2, and the reduced gathering sizes, 50 instead of 100. They could easily give us something they call L2, which is actually L3 in disguise. Providing it includes surfing and sailing, I wont care :-)

Nope, don’t agree. The rules are the rules, and it’s up to the police to enforce them, not decide what’s right and wrong. Remember the rules are made for the lowest common denominator, and we have seen more frequent breaches, and arrests so far, as the lockdown goes on.

So, IMO the rules are either altered or not. If not, the police are required to check and enforce.

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A lot of catastrophising going on here, but in my purely anecdotal observations plenty of people are breaking L4. Here's an example, people are cycling from their home suburb another 10-20ks away. People meeting up with friends to socialise, people driving all over Auckland. Lockdowns work when people observe the rules, all it takes is one person to enter the community with Delta on one of those harmless activities or go to the supermarket for 2 items because they are bored and we are back at square one.

I think we are not going to eliminate it the way we are going. Its pretty much management now. There is only so much L4 that people can handle- although we are not their yet. 

We discussed the stupidity of yachties being locked up last time, the number of rescues etc and its still stupid but they have to have a blanket rule so that the main offenders (trailer boats I believe) stay off the water. Civil disobedience only works when a critical mass occurs, when one person says FU and no one joins them then its off to the magistrate, but if 10,000 join them then its a law change.

If someone is double vaccinated, tested covid free then why not go boating, the coastguard should all be fully vaxxed as well so whats the problem?

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5 minutes ago, Psyche said:

that the main offenders (trailer boats I believe) stay off the water

Hmm now wheres coastguard based??Auckland. Who is allowed out n about on the water.All those in waikato south,should of seen the steady stream of trailer boats heading up the Thames coast RD yesterday morning. Yes I was working ,bugger,

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5 minutes ago, Psyche said:

A lot of catastrophising going on here, but in my purely anecdotal observations plenty of people are breaking L4. Here's an example, people are cycling from their home suburb another 10-20ks away. People meeting up with friends to socialise, people driving all over Auckland. Lockdowns work when people observe the rules, all it takes is one person to enter the community with Delta on one of those harmless activities or go to the supermarket for 2 items because they are bored and we are back at square one.

I think we are not going to eliminate it the way we are going. Its pretty much management now. There is only so much L4 that people can handle- although we are not their yet. 

We discussed the stupidity of yachties being locked up last time, the number of rescues etc and its still stupid but they have to have a blanket rule so that the main offenders (trailer boats I believe) stay off the water. Civil disobedience only works when a critical mass occurs, when one person says FU and no one joins them then its off to the magistrate, but if 10,000 join them then its a law change.

If someone is double vaccinated, tested covid free then why not go boating, the coastguard should all be fully vaxxed as well so whats the problem?

This is what happened in NSW. Now, according to their medical people, delta is unstoppable, and their medical system will be overwhelmed in the next few weeks. It will be interesting to see what actually develops there…

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Usually keep our boat in HMB. Currently in a shed in Mt Maunganui and we won't take it to Auckland this summer. Too much risk of no boating at all if we did. I assume Mercurys to Tutukaka non stop would be OK with the current levels?

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