But Wait, Theres More!

[Psyche 728]

Just when you thought we were done with the easterlies, the easterlies are not done with us!

Every model shows a variation of this coming next week, cant wait!

 

[Zozza 324]

Yes, it is ridiculous.  La Nina is the main culprit from what I have read, with a few other factors such as the big high which has sat out in the eastern pacific since Christmas, and stops all the lows passing over NZ quickly.... however, the outlook long term is for La Nina to eventually fade away this year with a return of El Nino on the cards....but who really knows

[ex Elly 221]

The Squadron party at Kawau this weekend may be a damp squib. 
Or they may make us race back on the Saturday - just like last year.

 

[waikiore 446]

It was a fast return though, will we recognise your crew dressed as spanish pirates ? 

[khayyam 93]

Ooof, she looks a biggun. Central pressure below 970?

 

 

[Black Panther 1,692]

Oh FFS

[Steve Pope 253]

No one in NZ seems to want to recognise the effect that the Tongan volcano has had and is having on the climate, perhaps it doesn't fit the Climate change criteria? It is certainly being discussed in Europe and elsewhere. Many many cubic kilometers of ash , thousands upon thousands of tonnes of water (vapour) and of course our friend Co2, apparently more Co2 was vented than the industrial world has ever managed to put into the atmosphere! and of course many other chemicals as far up as the stratosphere

[CarpeDiem 510]

1 hour ago, Steve Pope said:

apparently more Co2 was vented than the industrial world has ever managed to put into the atmosphere!

This is a well debunked myth and does the rounds every time there is a big eruption. 

published scientific estimates of the global CO2 emissions for all on land and submarine volcanos “lie in a range from 0.13 gigaton to 0.44 gigaton per year.”

This is a fraction of the CO2 produced by human activity. In 2021, the global CO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes alone reached a record high of 36.3 billion tonnes (or gigatons, GT), data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed ( here ). A graph by the IEA tracking the increase of emissions since 1899 is viewable ( here )

 

[aardvarkash10 1,065]

2 hours ago, khayyam said:

Ooof, she looks a biggun. Central pressure below 970?

 

 

Valentine's Day massacre 

[khayyam 93]

Now forecast below 960, more or less direct hit on the Hauraki Gulf.

All I can say is I hope the forecast is wrong.

[aardvarkash10 1,065]

apparently its now a yearly event.  Book your calendar for 13/02/24 to enjoy its next full glory.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/weather-cyclone-dovis-heavy-winds-and-rain-set-to-strike-many-parts-of-north-island-including-auckland/ENVEHS2NY6HXDH6LMLILSTPZIY/

[Psyche 728]

2 hours ago, khayyam said:

Now forecast below 960, more or less direct hit on the Hauraki Gulf.

All I can say is I hope the forecast is wrong.

Outlook to 12:00 12 Feb 2023 UTC (1am Mon, 13 Feb NZT)

There is a HIGH risk that tropical low 14U will be a tropical cyclone during Friday and Saturday as the system moves southeast over waters to the south of New Caledonia. On Sunday the system may start to lose its tropical characteristics as it encounters coolers seas and strong winds aloft, but it is still expected to remain a deep low as it continues southeast towards the upper North Island.

[aardvarkash10 1,065]

some spare pole moorings at Brooklands Boating Club, Clevedon River if anyone feels the need.  No good for anything deeper than about 1.8m draft.  Good for multihulls.

[Corella 3]

Newbie here. We're over from Oz, cruising Auckland up to the Bay of Islands. Currently in Tutukaka Harbour, heading North later in the week.

What's the best harbour around here to sit out the coming winds? We've thought of Whangamumu Harbour, looks like a good all weather anchorage. Plan to get tucked in by Friday pm. Appreciate the opinion of the assembled wisdom/experience here.

(We rode out the storm a week or so ago at Rakino Island in the gulf, windy and lumpy, but OK.)

Thanks for your help.

 

[Black Panther 1,692]

It's going to be Easterlies, I'd get up to the bay of islands. A number of good options there. That coast is a shitty lee shore.

[Psyche 728]

I havent sat one out on the coast north but 

This looks ok but get right up into the mud somewhere and if you get to the Bay then the Waikare inlet is where you need to be.

 

[chariot 244]

I'm with BP. Get up to the bay. A lot more options. Definitely not Whangamumu.

[Black Panther 1,692]

I was thinking about it over dinner.  Agree, whangamumu in a easterly you will roll your guts out.my choices would be orongo Bay or pomare Bay ( we were there in the storm where the guy's windows popped out. Snug as.

[Corella 3]

Thanks all. How about Parekura Bay in the BoI?

Getting down Russell way may be a bit of a stretch as the winds get up on Saturday. (O/N Friday at Whangamumu Bay then head into the BoI in the morning.)

[Steve Pope 253]

1 hour ago, Psyche said:

I havent sat one out on the coast north but 

This looks ok but get right up into the mud somewhere and if you get to the Bay then the Waikare inlet is where you need to be.

 

Depending on what you draw, Whangaruru is well protected but can have an annoying  swell running well up. I have anchored where the top anchorage shows, There is reasonably deep water in the middle. I generally anchor to Stb. in the mud, as I only draw 1m with the boards up. through some fairly ferocious blows. Keep your dinghy close though, as they have been known to have wandered in the night.

Whangamumu, roly poly not recommended, The BoI and Keri Keri inlet, lots of choices, Whangaroa as good as you will find, many options. A Rocna or a Manson supreme on chain definitely a plus. Whatever you decide do it sooner rather than later.