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Bit of weather heading our way?


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VIDEO: Increasing risk of tropical cyclone impacting NZ next week

The chance of an ex #TropicalCyclone impacting #NewZealand next week has increased. http://WeatherWatch.co.nz lifts confidence of some sort of impact from 30% to 60% based on modelling. 

BUT: Unclear if it will be a storm, or just a low.

https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/video-increasing-risk-of-tropical-cyclone-impacting-nz-next-week


 

 

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The forecast track has been wobbling back and forth quite a lot. Exactly where and when remains to be seen, but I'd say some swell is a certainty! Was surprised to see how much there already is down at the beach this afternoon.

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Surprising swell at Stanmore Bay today already. Guess that is how the ancient people forecast storms - unexpected swell in otherwise calm weather.

Metservice and Windy are predicting 3.5 m swell for Hauraki on Sunday. Further north it looks like 4+ m, which will be big for a coast that doesn't normally see swell. I wonder who can spell 'coastal erosion'?

The problem with these storms is the wind always blows out the waves so the surfing is rubbish. Hoping to catch a few in the morning before the easterly kicks in.

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Hauraki gulf: Northeast swell rising to 4 metres. Significant and hazardous waves expected, with the potential for hazardous rip currents.

Mmm lovely. 

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Was in Samoa in 1990 when cyclone Val hit. Radio warnings were for phenomenal seas and try to preserve human life. Sort of puts a different perspective on things. Was glad to get home.

Went away on the boat for a week or so when I got back. Had 25/35 kn on the way home. Had to tell the wife it was only a gentle breeze. That didn't go down too well.

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Ex TL -it has been done, when at school last century we sailed a small cat out to Motuihe during a big storm carried boards over the island and surfed the reef then sailed home. No lifejackets to be seen but we were nervous and fully wetsuited.

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1 hour ago, waikiore said:

Ex TL -it has been done, when at school last century we sailed a small cat out to Motuihe during a big storm carried boards over the island and surfed the reef then sailed home. No lifejackets to be seen but we were nervous and fully wetsuited.

Used to surf motutapu in the 90s . The very long reef with a wee island on the end between administration  bay and the boulder bay that is between rangi and motutap . Very long right handers and will be pretty darn good on Sunday and Monday with some south in the wind 

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This is a case where I think there's a bit more detail on the electronic chart than the paper one (see the thread about paper charts). Compare with 1830978863_ScreenShot2022-01-14at10_26_53AM.thumb.png.c450066210b10862a724d944a4f6b758.png

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